In a race between two of the nation’s most vulnerable Senate seats, one with Republican governors in both parties and the other with a large Latino population, Democrat Mark Kirk will be a favorite to win in a blue state and the presidency.
The former Nebraska governor, who has served in the Senate since 2008, will face Republican Gov.
Phil Kearney in a state that President Donald Trump won by nearly 3 million votes in 2016.
Kirk, a former Nebraska lieutenant governor, has served as Nebraska’s Democratic nominee for president since 2010.
His victory over Kearney would be the second in less than a year for Kirk in the race.
Kirk is also a former Republican state senator from the state, where he lost his seat in 2010 to Republican Scott Brown.
Kearney, a Democrat, has a more favorable political map in Nebraska than Kirk, according to a map compiled by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Political Science Center.
He also has a greater presence in the state than Kirk does, and the two candidates have a similar number of seats in the U.S. House.
“The race is tight,” said political scientist David Leopold.
“But there’s no question that Mark Kirk has a lot of momentum, and I don’t think that will slow down in 2020.
I think he’ll win by about a 10-point margin.”
Kearney won reelection in 2018 with an 80 percent to 18 percent victory over Kirk.
Kearns 2016 loss in Nebraska was the first time a Democratic gubernatorial candidate had lost an election.
That loss came after Democrats had held the state House and Senate for the past two years.
The map shows Kirk with a 13-point advantage over Kearns.
Democratic candidates also have a greater number of states under their control in 2020 compared to Republicans, with 14 in 2020 and 13 in 2022.
Kirk leads Kearney by a similar margin in a hypothetical rematch.
Kirk and Kearney face off in the midterms, with Kirk holding a narrow lead with nearly a third of the vote.
The race is expected to come down to a contest in the Omaha suburbs.
Kirk’s support is strongest in Omaha, where his support in 2018 was the lowest it has been in Nebraska history.
Kearneys support has been strongest in Lincoln, where Kearns has a significant presence in both chambers.
Kearseys biggest victory came in 2016, when he defeated Democrat Scott Brown, who then won the governor’s race.
Kearny won a second term in 2018 after he won the gubernatorial race and in 2020, Kearns took over as the state’s governor.
Kirk will face Kearney again in 2022, when Kearns was reelected as governor.
He won reelection with an 83 percent to 13 percent victory in 2021, with less than 2 million votes.
Kearsey’s popularity has also fallen in recent years.
In 2020, he was re-elected with a 73 percent to 16 percent victory.
Kirk has also lost support in recent decades in the Midwest and has struggled in the Southwest.
Kearners support has dropped in the Northeast, where it peaked in 2000.
The election in 2020 is a rematch of a race that the two former rivals waged in 2018.
Kirk lost to Kearney twice, in 1992 and 1996.
He narrowly lost the seat to former Democratic Gov.
David Ige in 2016 and lost again to Kearns in 2018, when it was still a competitive state.
Kearne also lost the 2016 race to Democrat Tom Harkin, who was reelecting as a Republican.
Kirk also lost his bid for reelection in 2019.
Kearnes 2016 loss to Harkin was the most recent blow for Kirk.
He was rekindled in 2020 after defeating Republican Gov.-elect Mike DeWine, who had been seen as the GOP establishment candidate.
DeWines 2016 loss was the biggest blow for Kearns, who became the state Democratic nominee in 2020 in the first election since President Donald Trumps inauguration.
The Democrats picked up their largest share of the popular vote in Nebraska since the 2010 midterm elections.
They were able to win back the state legislature, which DeWiners administration had been under Democratic control since 2014.
The seat is held by Republican Gov-elect Mike Leavitt, who is running for re-election in 2024.
Dewines administration has been under pressure from both Kirk and Democratic Gov.-election commissioner Tim Ashe.
The two have been in a bitter campaign over the last year.
De Wines administration had spent $1.4 million on ads in 2018 against Kearns challenger Matt Wint, a Republican who had served as Leavitz administration’s chief of staff and was known as the “Gator” governor.
The ad campaign focused on the state Senate.
In the ad, De Wine says the two are the same party, but he was elected to represent a diverse group of Omaha Democrats, including the LGBTQ community.
The ads also targeted the Democratic mayor of Omaha, and one of the ads showed a rainbow flag in the background of the ad.
Kirk took over in 2018 as